Insights from our Portfolio Managers
Our outlook remains optimistic but appropriately cautious as we look ahead. We see ongoing opportunities within global equities, supported by resilient economic data in the U.S. and Europe, and have strong conviction in areas showing broadening performance beyond just the big names in technology. Canada’s market has been a recent standout, outpacing the U.S. thanks to strong contributions from precious metals companies, even amid tariff headwinds. On the fixed income side, we’re encouraged by the resumption of global rate cut cycles, which historically support returns as borrowing costs ease.
While some economic indicators still point to slower growth and sticky inflation, markets are reflecting optimism about easing monetary policy, improved earnings, and new drivers of innovation, including AI and healthcare. We continue to lean into diversification, not only across asset classes but also geographically and from a sector perspective, to balance the usual risks and remain agile if the environment changes unexpectedly.
Our reasoning centers on the fundamental separation between market sentiment, which is inherently forward-looking, and economic data, which often lags.
— Wesley Blight
September in review
Equity and bond markets advanced in September, buoyed by easing monetary policy. However, momentum faded late in the month as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that persistent inflation, stronger growth, and resilient employment created uncertainty around future policy. Investor sentiment was also shaken by the looming U.S. government shutdown, which began October 1. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite rose 5.40%, led by Materials (18.89%) and Energy (5.55%), while the S&P 500 gained 3.64%, driven by Information Technology (7.25%) and Communication Services (5.60%). Bonds gained 1.89% in Canada and 1.09% in the U.S. Commodities were mixed, with gold up 10.16% and WTI crude oil and natural gas down 1.72% and 0.90%, respectively. Emerging markets outperformed, rising 7.16% on improving U.S.-China trade talks.
Here are some of August's most notable events:
Canada’s labour weakness intensifies amid Q2 growth. On September 5, Statistics Canada released the August employment figures showing the labor market weakened further, raising concerns for policymakers. Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August, mostly in part-time positions and among core-aged men and women, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.1 %, second highest among the G7 countries. This weak employment picture contrasts with modest economic growth, as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2% in Q2 2025, surpassing expectations and reversing Q1’s -0.1% figure.
U.S. economic data complicates monetary policy outlook. September’s economic releases added uncertainty to the U.S. monetary policy path, as a mix of persistent inflation, resilient labor markets, and stronger growth clouded the outlook for future rate decisions. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected, signaling continued labor market strength, while the final estimate confirmed U.S. GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 3.8% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.6% contraction in Q1. Upward revisions to consumer and business spending, combined with a decline in imports boosting net trade, reinforced the economy’s resilience, complicating the Fed’s efforts to balance growth and inflation pressures.
| Index† | Change (%) | Index Level | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| Treasury Bill (FTSE Canada 60 Day T-Bill) | 0.24 | 2.15 | 3.21 | 189.71 |
| Canadian Bonds (FTSE Canada Universe Bond) | 1.89 | 2.98 | 2.93 | 1,203.66 |
| Canadian Equities (S&P/TSX Composite) | 5.40 | 23.95 | 28.63 | 30,022.81 |
| U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond, US$) | 1.09 | 6.13 | 2.88 | 2,323.29 |
| U.S. Equities (S&P 500, US$) | 3.64 | 14.81 | 17.56 | 6,688.46 |
| Global Equities (MSCI World, US$) | 3.25 | 17.84 | 17.76 | 4,306.70 |
| Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets, US$) | 7.16 | 28.15 | 18.11 | 1,346.05 |
| Currencies† | Change (%) | Exchange Rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| C$/US ($) | -1.28 | 3.34 | -2.84 | 0.7184 |
| C$/Euro (€) | -1.65 | -8.82 | -7.79 | 0.6123 |
| C$/Pound (£) | -0.82 | -3.82 | -3.31 | 0.5344 |
| C$/Yen (¥) | -0.75 | -2.83 | 0.05 | 106.251 |
| Commodities (US$)† | Change (%) | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| Gold Spot ($/oz) | 10.16 | 39.98 | 40.13 | 3,873.20 |
| Oil WTI ($/barrel) | -1.72 | -8.95 | -6.17 | 62.37 |
| Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) | -0.90 | -15.44 | -9.41 | 3.30 |
†Total Return, as at September 30, 2025. Indices are quoted in their local currency.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices are not managed, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
European Central Bank (ECB) holds rates steady amid uneven inflation pressures. The ECB left interest rates unchanged, maintaining its cautious stance as policymakers assessed uneven progress on inflation across the eurozone. While headline inflation has eased, underlying price pressures remain persistent, particularly in services, as seen in recent flash services PMI figures, keeping the ECB wary of declaring victory. Officials highlighted that the path forward will depend on incoming data, balancing the need to support growth with the risk of entrenched inflation. The decision underscored the challenge facing Europe’s central bank: preserving hard-won disinflation gains while navigating fragile economic momentum and divergent conditions across member states.
Did you know?
Gold has long been considered a “safe-haven” investment, meaning it often holds its value when markets become uncertain. At the end of September 2025, the price of gold closed just over $3,873 per ounce, a rise of nearly 40% year-to-date. Unlike stocks or bonds, physical gold does not pay interest or dividends, so it doesn’t generate income on its own. Instead, its appeal lies in wealth preservation—during periods of inflation, currency weakness, or market volatility, such as concerns over a U.S. government shutdown, gold prices have historically tended to rise.
