November in review
Equity markets posted gains in November, despite heighted volatility. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 3.86%, supported by strong gains in Materials (14.62%), Consumer Staples (8.76%), and Consumer Discretionary (7.51%). The U.S. S&P 500 gained 0.25%, with Health Care (9.31%), Communication Services (6.35%), and Materials (4.17%) leading sector performance. In fixed income, Canadian bonds rose 0.27%, while U.S. bonds increased 0.62% as yields moved lower after delayed data pointed to softer economic momentum. Commodities were mixed, with gold up 5.59%, natural gas up 11.01%, and crude oil down 3.38%. Emerging markets weakened, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declining 2.38% due to drops in South Korea and China and investors shifting toward lower-risk assets.
Here are some of November's most notable events:
Real GDP rises in Q3 after previous quarter pullback. Canada’s economy grew in the third quarter of 2025, with real GDP rising 0.6% after a 0.5% decline in the previous quarter. The increase was supported by a large drop in imports, the biggest since 2022, along with higher government spending on long-term projects such as defence equipment and institutional infrastructure. Exports also saw modest gains. At the same time, inventories fell and both household and government day-to-day spending eased, which limited overall growth. On a per capita basis, GDP increased 0.5% in the third quarter, after falling 0.5% the previous quarter.
Canada releases the federal budget for 2025. Canada released its "Canada Strong" federal budget on November 4, 2025, outlining updated plans for spending, revenues, and the country’s fiscal outlook. The budget introduced multi-year commitments across several priority areas, including $25 billion for housing, $30 billion for defence and security, $115 billion for infrastructure, and $110 billion to support productivity and competitiveness, each spread over five years. The upcoming fiscal year’s deficit is now forecast at $78.3 billion, compared with the earlier estimate of $42.2 billion. It also included revised projections for economic growth which is expected to gradually rise toward 2.0% by 2027, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall towards 6.4% by 2027.
| Index† | Change (%) | Index Level | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| Treasury Bill (FTSE Canada 60 Day T-Bill) | 0.18 | 2.58 | 2.91 | 190.51 |
| Canadian Bonds (FTSE Canada Universe Bond) | 0.27 | 3.97 | 3.25 | 1,215.30 |
| Canadian Equities (S&P/TSX Composite) | 3.86 | 29.98 | 25.73 | 31,382.78 |
| U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond, US$) | 0.62 | 7.46 | 5.70 | 2,352.33 |
| U.S. Equities (S&P 500, US$) | 0.25 | 17.79 | 14.97 | 6,849.09 |
| Global Equities (MSCI World, US$) | 0.31 | 20.62 | 17.52 | 4,398.44 |
| Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets, US$) | -2.38 | 30.37 | 30.26 | 1,366.92 |
| Currencies† | Change (%) | Exchange Rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| C$/US ($) | 0.24 | 2.92 | 0.21 | 0.7155 |
| C$/Euro (€) | -0.31 | -8.15 | -8.64 | 0.6168 |
| C$/Pound (£) | -0.42 | -2.72 | -3.59 | 0.5405 |
| C$/Yen (¥) | 1.51 | 2.06 | 4.33 | 111.588 |
| Commodities (US$)† | Change (%) | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mth | YTD | 1 Yr | ||
| Gold Spot ($/oz) | 5.59 | 52.45 | 51.90 | 4,254.90 |
| Oil WTI ($/barrel) | -3.38 | -13.74 | -10.96 | 58.55 |
| Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) | 11.01 | 4.17 | 9.95 | 4.85 |
†Total Return, as at November 30, 2025. Indices are quoted in their local currency.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices are not managed, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Tech sector volatility resurfaces in November. Equity markets saw increased volatility in November, led by declines in major technology stocks. As economic data resumed following the U.S. government shutdown, uncertainty around the future path of interest rates grew and investors reassessed earnings expectations, putting pressure on growth-focused tech companies. Senior leaders at major U.S. banks noted that the artificial-intelligence-driven rally may have become overstretched, contributing to broader re-pricing across the tech sector and adding to concerns about elevated valuations.
Did you know?
Canada released its federal budget on November 4, 2025, continuing a tradition that dates back to the country’s first budget on December 7, 1867. That inaugural budget recorded $7.4 million in revenue and $5.3 million in spending. Since then, Canada has delivered 142 budgets and 22 related updates, with intervals between budgets ranging from as short as four months to as long as sixteen. Early budgets were simply speeches recorded by hand, with no supporting documents for the media. Today, the process is far more detailed and coordinated—and even includes the long-standing custom of Finance Ministers wearing new shoes on budget day.
Insights from our Portfolio Managers
As the year wraps up and the holiday spirit sets in, global markets have delivered an impressive sweep of gifts for investors. The S&P 500 has set over 25 record highs this year, while the S&P/TSX Composite shattered 45 all-time records – passing the 30,000 level for the first time and on track for one of its strongest years since 2009. Canadian sectors showed impressive breadth, as Materials surged over 90% thanks to record gold prices, and technology rose ~25%, beating U.S. tech. Meanwhile, emerging markets outperformed, led by booming Asian tech and semiconductor demand. Fixed income also performed well, with rate cuts boosting Canadian and U.S. bonds, and tight high yield spreads were supported by stronger corporate balance sheets. Three major factors continued to drive the rally of late: resilient consumer spending, strong earnings beating analyst estimates, and supportive monetary policy. Our Scotia Portfolio Solutions have captured this strength throughout the year, delivering solid results for our clients.
“As we look to 2026, our outlook remains positive: the opportunity set is still attractive, even as volatility is likely. Earnings momentum is broadening well beyond a handful of mega-cap names, and global growth remains resilient. Today’s tech leaders are profitable and well-capitalized, differentiating this cycle from past bubbles. While market concentration remains a risk, it highlights why true diversification is essential for long-term resilience. We continue to focus on building resilient portfolios that can capture opportunity and manage risk… ready for whatever lies ahead.”
— Craig Maddock, VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Multi-Asset Management
