Speaker Key:
GS Gregory Sweet
WB Wes Blight
VO Voiceover
00:00:00
GS Welcome back to Let's Talk Investing. I'm your host, Greg Sweet. We're here at the close of 2025, a year that has been quite remarkable for markets. It's the perfect time to look back at what happened, understand what it means for your money, and preview what we're expecting in 2026. Joining me today is Wes Blight, Vice President and Portfolio Manager on our multi-asset management team. Wes, thanks for being here.
00:00:23
WB Thanks for having me, Greg. It’s great to be back.
00:00:26
GS So, 2025 has been another stellar year in markets. We're tracking at about 15% return in the S&P 500 so far this year, on top of a 23% return in 2024, and 24% the year prior. That's three consecutive years of double-digit returns. For someone watching from the sidelines, it might feel like markets are on an unstoppable run. But I imagine there's more nuance to the story.
00:00:51
WB Absolutely, Greg. I’m glad that you’re asking that because there really is. A good amount of the S&P 500's returns this year actually came from earnings growth, so companies genuinely making more money, not just investors paying higher prices for those same profits. That’s a healthy foundation for the US, and then back home in Canada, we're tracking about 25% in the S&P TSX Composite, which puts us in line for one of our strongest years on record. And that's the key word flexible because every retirement conversation will be different depending on where your client is in their retirement journey and what their unique circumstances are. But rise gives you a consistent process that you can adapt. Now, here’s the important part. It wasn’t a smooth ride. We had a massive event earlier this year that tested everything. What was called Liberation Day really shook things up for a moment, and that story is crucial for understanding where we are now and where we’re headed.
00:01:42
GS Liberation Day, that was quite dramatic. Walk us through what happened.
00:01:47
WB So, back in early April, the US announced a 10% baseline tariff on imports from over 180 different countries. Some of those countries had materially higher tariffs that were announced, and that announcement created enormous uncertainty. Over the next 40 days, we hit peak chaos. The average US tariff rate climbed significantly; it was up to the highest point that it's been since World War II. That’s not a small change. Markets, as a result, reacted sharply. We saw a sell-off, credit spreads widened out, volatility spiked. Investors were genuinely concerned about the economic impact. But then something interesting happened: by late May, as negotiations progressed and the dust started to settle, most of the tariffs were either rolled back or renegotiated. And when clarity finally emerged, the market recovered strongly.
00:02:41
GS So the market overreacted to the headline, then recovered once the real impact became clear?
00:02:46
WB Exactly. And this is fascinating because investor confidence was pretty low through that entire period. The sentiment was genuinely pessimistic. You read headlines that were screaming about trade wars, about damage to growth, about stagflation risks. And that disconnect between what was actually happening and how people felt about it, that’s classic market behaviour. Fear dominates headlines more than stability does, and there's a silver lining that you have to look through in order to understand. From a Canadian perspective, our job market held firm through it all, new trading partners emerged, and now moving forward, our relatively low tariff environment is actually becoming a competitive advantage. We’re better positioned than a lot of people realize.
00:03:30
GS That’s a really important point for Canadian investors to hear. But let's step back and talk about what's been working well in equity markets more broadly. You mentioned earnings growth. How real is that story?
00:03:41
WB Very real. US earnings grew double digits year-over-year this year, and I think the key point is most of those earnings, growing at those realized levels that were so strong, were beating expectations. And that’s a quality signal that we want to see. Companies aren’t just barely meeting projections; they’re coming in ahead. And that suggests that underlying business strength is really quite strong. Now, I’ll be honest with you, valuations are expensive. If you look at price-to-earnings ratios on the S&P 500, we’re sitting around the 93rd percentile historically, and that’s in the top 7% of all valuations on record. And I think this is an important point: those valuations are being supported by real margin expansion and consistent outperformance. Companies are managing their costs well, they’re investing in productivity, and that’s translating directly into actual profit growth.
00:04:37
GS When you say margins are expanding, what does that look like in practice?
00:04:40
WB Companies have higher revenue, but they're also keeping more of each dollar that's coming in as actual profit. They’re getting more efficient, and a lot of that efficiency is coming from something that we need to talk about at great length because it's really the story of 2025, and that's Artificial Intelligence.
00:04:59
GS All right, AI. I want to understand: is this real economic value creation, or is it all hype?
00:05:05
WB That's the right question to ask. And the answer is it's genuinely real. But there's a layer of complexity that we need to be careful about. Now let me give you some numbers first. Major technology firms, they are projected to invest about $340 billion in AI in 2025. Globally, AI spending reached somewhere between $360 and $480 billion. And the economic impact is that AI investment added roughly 1.1% to US GDP growth, so that's the US economy, in the first half of 2025 alone. To put that in perspective, that's actually outpacing consumer spending as a growth driver. And that’s massive when you look back over the last three years, roughly 65 to 70% of all equity gains that we’ve seen link back to AI spending and AI-driven companies. So it’s not a small factor, it’s been the dominant factor.
00:06:05
GS The dominant factor, okay. But you said there's complexity that we need to be careful about. What do you mean by that?
00:06:10
WB There's a potential feedback loop happening that we need to keep an eye on. Chipmakers fund AI labs, AI labs build data centers, data centers buy more chips from those chipmakers. That’s a circular economy. And while circular economies can be helpful, they can also inflate growth figures without corresponding real-world end-user demand. Think of it this way: the investment is happening, the infrastructure is being built, the GDP numbers are being recorded, but we’re still in the early innings of asking are enough real customers out there actually using these AI tools to justify all of this spending. The answer is probably yes, but it’s worth watching and paying attention to.
00:06:54
GS So what does real-world AI value creation actually look like?
00:07:00
WB This is where it gets really exciting. So imagine you’re a radiologist. AI systems can now read and flag abnormalities in medical imaging faster and often more consistently than humans can do it manually. Now that’s not hypothetical, it's actually happening in hospitals today. Or you can think about a logistics company. They’re out there using AI to optimize delivery routes in real time. And that’s instead of relying on human experience or even outdated algorithms. AI is finding the most efficient paths, saving fuel, speeding up deliveries, and that translates into real productivity. In back-office operations, companies are using AI to automate data entry, do contract reviews, compliance checks. All the things that used to require armies of people going through and doing it manually. And critically, these tools aren’t replacing humans wholesale, they’re making existing workers dramatically more productive. And I think there's one interesting side effect here is that data centers need tremendous amounts of electricity. So much so that utilities in the US, think about the utility sector—usually considered sleepy, defensive, kind of boring—it actually gained over 20% in 2025. That's unusual and it's a sign of that requirement for real infrastructure demand.
00:08:23
GS So there's a lot of positivity and hope and growth around AI. Are there any downsides here?
00:08:29
WB There are. Yeah. You can look at Oracle as an example. The company took on a heavy debt to fund massive data center build-outs. It was dominated in the headlines back in September. And the market, as a result, demanded a higher risk premium from Oracle compared to its peer hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon. And that’s investors essentially saying we see the capital expenditure, we see the debt load, and we want to be compensated more for that risk that we’re taking. And that’s a reasonable signal; that's a sign of a healthy market. So the bottom line on AI: the productivity boost is real, the infrastructure investment is real, but some of the companies financing it are aggressively taking on risk. And that’s worth thinking about in a diversified portfolio.
00:09:20
GS Speaking of diversification, let's talk about something that's been weighing on a lot of investors' minds: the concentration in markets. The Magnificent Seven, those big tech companies, have been really the dominant drivers. How worried should we be of that?
00:09:35
WB This is a really important point. And I want to be direct here: concentration is both an opportunity and a genuine risk. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up about 40% of the entire index. That said, the Magnificent Seven, and you know who they are, these mega-cap tech leaders, they are up considerably this year. And that’s driven mostly by AI themes; a lot of that is justified by their actual performance. Think back to that earnings growth: they are compounding wealth. But here’s the challenge: if you’re trying to diversify by buying a broad S&P 500 index fund, you think you’re getting exposure to 500 companies—you are getting exposure to 500 companies—but in reality, nearly half of your money is concentrated in just 10 names. That creates vulnerability, and if one of these behemoths stumble, the impact is outsized. Now, from our perspective as active managers, this concentration actually worked against us this last year, can you believe it or not. We positioned our portfolios to be diversified across sectors, across regions, even across asset classes, which is the right thing to do. But because mega-cap concentration was so extreme, our diversification looked like a drag on relative returns. Now that’s a humbling lesson in markets: sometimes the right strategy looks wrong in the short term.
00:10:58
GS But you still believe diversification is the right approach?
00:11:02
WB Absolutely. This is the reason why: every sector has a year. Materials, as an example, had an incredible year in Canada. Financials surged, utilities have delivered remarkable returns. But if you had been concentrated in mega-cap tech at the expense of those other sectors, you would have missed those gains. And over longer periods of time, diversification is how you smooth volatility and avoid the devastation that comes from having your entire portfolio bet on just one theme.
00:11:34
GS Let's break down sector performance because it's been quite varied across geographies. Let's start with Canada.
00:11:41
WB Canada’s story is really interesting this year. Our materials sector was the primary driver, particularly gold miners. Here’s the nuance: gold miners surged far more than gold itself has risen. As you know, gold went up a lot, but this is about operating leverage. So when gold prices go up, the operating costs of the mine don’t rise proportionally, so the profits are surging. And that’s why the gold stocks outpaced the commodity. And gold demand itself, it’s been supported by in part its traditional safe-haven role. When investors get nervous about tariffs, trade wars, geopolitical uncertainty, they buy gold. The second largest contributor to TSX gains has been financials, so banks are up strongly. Some have rebounded sharply from regulatory issues in prior years, and part of the reason why financials holistically and banks specifically have performed so well in this last year is the yield curve, and that’s the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates. That difference has steeped out. Steeper curves are healthier for bank profitability because they benefit from wider interest margins. Finally, I’d say technology is interesting. Shopify is now the largest company in the Canadian index, and that tells you about the tech evolution in Canada. We’ve got real global-scale companies, not just domestically focused businesses right here in Canada.
00:13:04
GS And in the US and globally?
00:13:08
WB US communication services companies in search, video, online advertising, they posted strong gains as well. These are global platforms with pricing power and scale. Information technology has been the dominant driver, and semiconductors have delivered strong returns as well. Some AI-linked software companies have posted triple-digit gains. That's spectacular, but it underscores the concentration issue we talked about earlier. And then there are emerging markets. They outperformed developed markets by the widest margin since the global financial crisis. And we’re talking here about strong gains in Asia and in Latin America. That’s given us a more balanced global growth story and, frankly, better valuations in those regions on a go-forward basis.
00:13:54
GS All right, so you mentioned valuations. Let me ask: where are valuations most attractive right now?
00:14:01
WB If we look at the price-to-earnings, basically where valuation sits today compared to history, we are seeing the US at a very expensive level. Now that’s been supported by earnings growth, but on a price-to-earnings valuation, it's expensive. Canada is also expensive. It’s a bit more moderate, and not at the same extreme levels that we’re seeing in the US. Then you go over to Europe and EAFA, that’s developed markets outside of North America. They are sitting at a more reasonable level of attractiveness. European markets have quietly posted solid returns and their relative valuations are more compelling than what we’re seeing in North America. So as we think about where to allocate capital going forward, having a diverse geographic toolkit matters. The US offers quality, but those quality companies are coming at a premium price. Elsewhere you can find quality at more reasonable prices, and that’s a diversification opportunity. And this ties directly back to the portfolio updates that we’ve been making. We’re taking advantage of these opportunities where we see them, including in private markets, which aren’t as subject to the daily sentiment swings that public markets experience.
00:15:22
GS So you’re saying there's opportunity out there, but we do need to put in some effort to find those, and that’s what your team is doing. And speaking of the diversification that you build into the portfolios, that reminds me of something. I want to mention that in last year's podcast, this time last year, Wes, you made the same points on this: diversification and valuation dispersion, and how often one region passes the torch from one year to the next.
00:15:48
WB These themes really do persist. And that’s actually encouraging. It means that the investment principles we talk about aren’t just the flavor of the month, they’re enduring. The specifics change, the opportunities rotate and evolve, but the fundamental stays consistent.
00:16:04
GS Let's shift to fixed income and bonds. Because that's part of the portfolio that's often overlooked in conversations. How have bonds performed this year? And what should we be expecting in 2026?
00:16:15
WB Bonds have had a solid year, actually. Investment-grade corporate bonds delivered mid-single-digit returns in 2025. Might sound modest or maybe even a little boring compared to equities, but for fixed income, that's highly respectable, that's fantastic. And here's what's important: bonds are playing the role they're supposed to play in the portfolio. They’re providing stability and income while equities are driving growth. Yield curve, as we talked about, has evolved in a healthy way. Short-term yields have moved lower as markets anticipate further rate cuts from central banks, and long-term yields have risen slightly, creating that steeper curve that we talked about. That's a more normal shape and it supports better bond returns going forward.
00:16:58
GS Okay, that's reassuring. But what's the outlook for bonds in 2026?
00:17:01
WB Our group expects there’s going to be modest and gradual rate cuts from central banks that continue into 2026, and that should support further bond gains. Lower yields mean existing bonds, which pay higher rates, become more valuable. You can think of that as, you know, owning a house. When mortgage rates suddenly drop, your property becomes a little bit more attractive. Plus, lower rates reduce the cost of capital for businesses, which supports economic growth and it improves corporate balance sheets. Bonds should continue to benefit from that environment. And our advice would be: be selective with credit exposure. With spreads now at their historically tight level, we’re focusing on higher-quality issuance and avoiding reaching for yield in areas where the risk-reward is unfavourable. And I want to emphasize here that bonds played the role they were supposed to this year; they provided that ballast, that stability. And then underneath, when we’re thinking about constructing our fixed income or bond portfolio, active management added significant value by navigating that rate volatility in a real smart way.
00:18:09
GS Let's talk about labor markets. Because that's really the foundation underneath everything that we're discussing.
00:18:14
WB The labor market is one of those more underrated factors in investing, and in 2025, we completed the post-pandemic normalization. Now that's gone through quite an evolution when you go back to 2020 through the normalization that began in '22 and '23. Back then, labor was really tight. Companies were struggling to hire, wage growth was elevated, workers had this extraordinary bargaining power, and all of that has cooled. The labor supply has improved. Think back to 2020: we weren’t getting out of our houses, we weren’t really moving around to go after new employment opportunities. We now have labor supply, it’s you know, you’ve got that migration that’s come back. Then you’ve got lower quit rates, and you have moderating wage growth. So we’ve moved from this environment of extremely tight labor market to something closer to being balanced. That’s healthy; it means that wage pressures are easing, which is good for inflation, but it also means that workers don’t have the same leverage they had a couple of years ago.
00:19:18
GS Which brings us to the economic outlook for 2026. I imagine that's nuanced.
00:19:22
WB It is. Let’s break this down by region and by theme. From a global growth perspective, we expect global GDP growth to pick up modestly from what we’ve seen, but it’s not going to be explosive. Our emerging markets are projected to grow faster than developed economies, though at a slower pace than what they grew in 2025. Now that two-speed world that we've talked about continues, and that's a two-speed between emerging markets and developed markets. Here at home in Canada, growth is expected to remain modest. It’s reflecting the headwinds that we’ve discussed, those being trade and export challenges. We also have household debt concerns; we’ve got consumers that are perhaps being a little bit more cautious. And then on the central bank side, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep its policy easy in 2026 and that’s going to help balance that below-trend growth and household debt concerns against inflation expectations.
00:20:15
GS Okay, that's good context. And I can tell you, I've certainly felt that prices do not come down easily. Yeah. Let's talk about it, especially in the US.
00:20:22
WB Core inflation measures in the US, they’re expected to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Service inflation in particular, that remains sticky. Things like healthcare, education, even haircuts—those prices don’t come down easily. And I think the wildcard is really about the tariff pass-through. So the majority of US companies are planning to pass the higher shipping and tariff costs directly through to consumers; that hasn’t happened yet. It is going to keep price pressures a little bit more elevated. So inflation doesn’t go away, it will continue to moderate, but it doesn't get solved. On the positive side, there’s likely to be a fiscal tailwind. A large US fiscal package that you might have heard about, that combines tax cuts and infrastructure spending. It's expected to support 2026 growth and accelerate that AI and tech CAPEX. So that’s the one big beautiful bill. It’s pro-growth, it’s also inflationary if growth accelerates too much. So the setup is: moderate growth, sticky inflation, gradual rate cuts. It’s a fairly modest scenario, it’s normal, but it does leave little room for error.
00:21:37
GS So let's move on to the consumer. I want to touch on something you mentioned on a previous podcast: the consumer confidence paradox. Consumer confidence surveys are near multi-year lows, but equity markets are near multi-year highs. How do we reconcile that?.
00:21:54
WB This is one of the most important disconnects in the market right now. And it's essential to understand because it affects your portfolio, it also affects your neighbor’s spending. The core issue is affordability. Housing costs, healthcare costs, education costs, those are all rising faster than incomes. And that squeeze is real; it shows up in surveys. Higher wealth households, the ones who own equities and own assets, have benefited significantly from asset gains. Their net worth is up, they’re spending, they’re traveling, they’re confident. And that’s showing up in things like luxury spending data. But middle- and lower-income households, those folks are squeezed. They’ve been hit by higher borrowing costs and their living expenses have risen, so they’re more cautious, they’re pulling back on spending. Now that said, if only wealthy households are spending, overall growth remains modest. So if that squeeze tightens, you could see a further slowdown in consumer spending.
00:22:55
GS So despite the difficult headlines, is this still a moment to stay invested and to contribute to your investment accounts?
00:23:01
WB I would say yes, emphatically so. The consumer squeeze makes it even more important for households to invest early and to stay disciplined through time. Time in the market and compounding return matter more than perfect timing. If you’re a household with modest income, investing consistently, automatically, through contributions on a regular basis to your portfolio helps to smooth volatility and removes that emotional burden of trying to time the market. You’re buying when markets are down, you’re buying when they’re up, and over a 20- or 30-year period, that discipline wins. For higher wealth households, the opportunity is just as important. Markets are expensive now, but that earnings growth we talked about is real. And from our view, and I think this is critically important, diversification across geographies, sectors, asset classes—that’s essential. And professional management, adding value through tactical adjustments, that’s the mix. All of these components are the mix that separates solid returns from great returns. And I can’t emphasize that piece enough. Even if you’re a bit squeezed financially, be mindful of your contributions. Missing the opportunity to invest in periods like this when markets are volatile but those fundamentals are well supported, that’s a missed opportunity that will compound over decades.
00:24:30
GS Finally, let's talk about our Scotia Portfolio Solutions. How did they navigate 2025?
00:24:35
WB I’m really proud of how our portfolios performed. But more importantly, it’s how they performed for different types of investors. We took an equity tilt with purpose. We positioned our portfolios with meaningful exposure to technology, to AI, our emerging markets and sectors, and themes where we thought the opportunity was the greatest. Now that positioning drove higher returns, but here’s what’s important: we didn’t put all our eggs in the Magnificent Seven mega-caps. We diversified across sectors, regions, asset classes. We added emerging market exposure, which as I mentioned, outperformed developed markets by the widest margin in years.
00:25:15
GS That's great news, Wes. And I'll say thanks for all the great work that you're doing to provide great returns for our clients. Can you talk a bit about the underlying funds and how they add value relative to their asset classes? How do they complement each other compared to passive investing?
00:25:30
GS Absolutely. And this is where the institutional discipline really shows up. Our Canadian-focused funds have been key domestic growth engines this year. They’ve captured the strength of Canadian equities while diversifying across different company sizes and sectors, and together they deepen exposure to the home market and have materially lifted overall portfolio returns. Our emerging market-focused funds added an important return stream, a diversifying return stream, from faster-growing regions like Asia and Latin America, and that geographic diversity, that’s a great example of it in action. And then you get into our international-focused funds; they further broaden that diversification by allocating across non-North American developed markets. And the key point here is each of these funds targets a different part of the global opportunity set. They complement one another and, compared to passive investing where you’re just buying an index and accepting whatever concentration or sector biases that come with that index, active management allows us to tilt towards things like quality. It allows us to adjust for valuation, it allows us to respond to changing market conditions, and that flexibility has added real value this year.
00:25:45
GS So we're saying the active managed approach, the diversification, the tactical adjustment—that actually made a tangible difference in 2025.
00:25:52
WB It did. In a market as concentrated as the S&P 500 has been, actually the world has been, passive investing would have meant being heavily overweight in a handful of companies. And our active approach allows us to own great businesses across geographies and across sectors, and still benefit from the gains in those companies without being entirely dependent on them. We talked about multiple asset classes and fixed income was another area where active management added significant value this year. Instead of just buying a bond index and holding it, we navigated the rate volatility and the credit spread swings as well. We adjusted duration and credit exposure at some of the key moments that we encountered in 2025, and that discipline paid off with better risk-adjusted returns.
00:27:41
GS As we look ahead to 2026, what are the key considerations for clients?
00:27:46
WB There are several and we’ll go through them. First, that earnings story is real. Market gains have been supported by solid profit growth. Companies are managing cost pressures better than expected and that’s a foundation that is worth building on.
Second, the labor market is now stable. The economy has adjusted from really tight labor market conditions to something that’s closer to balance, and we didn’t need that deep recession that was predicted in order to get there. And that’s a positive.
Third one: concentration is both an opportunity and a risk. The Magnificent Seven represent genuine AI leadership in real economic value, but the degree of concentration creates some vulnerability. Outside of those names, international markets offer better diversification and better valuations, but yet still have exposure to the same AI-type leadership and themes. Fourth one: the tariff story is continuing to evolve. That initial shock in April was short-lived, the longer-term impact is more nuanced. Canada has a low tariff positioning relative to the US and that is genuinely advantageous, but trade volumes are, you know, they're slower, and exporters here are cautious.
And then fifth, we need humility about the future. There’s a meaningful probability for both positive surprises—a fiscal boost that’s going to accelerate growth, and you know, AI productivity gains being even larger than expected. The flip to that would be, from a risk point of view, negative surprises as well. So thinking about the potential for a recession, geopolitical shocks, or a credit event. As we think through what we may encounter, diversification and discipline are essential. Now that said, Greg, maybe I can ask you a question. Being in the industry for a while now, what do you think investors should do heading into 2026?
00:29:50
GS Okay, Wes, I came prepared and I've written some of these down. So let's get at it. Number one: start early and build good habits. The earlier you start investing, the more years your money has to compound. A dollar invested when you're 25 is worth much more at 65 than a dollar invested at 45.
Two: time in the market matters more than perfect timing. You said it earlier: you don't need to pick the exact bottom; staying invested through cycles is what builds wealth over time.
Three: automatic contributions help smooth volatility and reduce timing stress. Set up automatic deposits to your RRSP or your TFSA, maybe it's both. You're buying at different prices; it removes the emotion.
Number four: stay disciplined and ignore noise. Strong businesses with earnings that are growing really drive long-term returns. Daily market volatility is just noise. Don't let it shake you out of a good plan.
Number five: revisit your plan thoughtfully, not reactively when markets move. Have a plan, stick to it, but revisit it periodically. If your personal circumstances have changed or if your risk tolerance has shifted, then adjust. Just don't do it on the back of market movements.
00:31:05
WB Greg, that’s excellent. It’s a good reminder that despite the complexity of markets, the core principles haven’t changed.
00:31:13
GS Exactly right. And I think that's reassuring. Yes, 2025 threw us some curveballs: Liberation Day and the tariff shock, the concentration of markets, AI CAPEX questions. But underlying it all, companies are making more money, the labor market is balanced, and diversified portfolios are delivering returns for disciplined investors. 2026 will have its own challenges and opportunities. But if you're following these principles, if you have a professionally managed portfolio tailored for your goals and you're staying the course, you're in a strong position. Well, I think that's a perfect place to wrap our conversation. Wes, thanks for the insights.
00:31:53
GS And to all of our listeners: remember, the investment world is always changing. But working with an advisor and experienced portfolio manager who builds and manages investments designed specifically for your needs gives you the best chance to achieve your goals. Thanks for joining us today. We'll be back next quarter with more insights from our portfolio management team. Here at Scotiabank, we're focused on being your most trusted financial partner for every future. Until next time, be well and keep investing.
00:32:18
VO This audio has been prepared by Scotia Global Asset Management and is provided for information purposes only. Views expressed regarding a particular investment economy, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any of the mutual funds managed by Scotia Global Asset Management. These views are not to be relied upon as investment advice, nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. These views are subject to change at any time based upon markets and other conditions, and we disclaim any responsibility to update such views.
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